If you believe British folklorist Ruth Tongue, Rawhead and Bloody Bones was a night creature who hunched beneath the staircase, waiting to snatch — with its exceptionally long, slender arm — a child wandering the house at odd hours. You remained safe from harm, so goes the tale, if you stayed put where you were supposed to be under the blanket; and if you didn't, you'd never see old Rawhead coming. In Beirut and beyond the jubilation is tempered by wariness; sacking Karami's government wasn't easy but it didn't come with blood, and for three decades Syria has dealt with the Lebanese in nothing but. Even if Bashar Assad does pull his troops, his spies and his brownshirts back to Syria, the Lebanese know to watch their backs. In National Review today, Walid Phares put scholarly and in terms of Israel what Mohammed at Iraq the Model recently drew from street talk in terms of Lebanon. Phares:

Bashar Assad was offered a way out several times by the U.S. since 2002 but he continues refusing to relinquish control. With a U.N. resolution pending, and a vigorous Lebanese diaspora putting pressure worldwide, Syria's Baath is in real trouble in Lebanon. Hence, they are now using the tools at their disposal: the jihadist organizations. By striking Israel, they aim to force it to retaliate in a limited way, which will give Hezbollah the pro-Syrian regime in Beirut an opportunity to crush the opposition.

And Mohammed:

I have pointed this out in a previous post, the Ba'ath regime throughout its criminal history has depended from its early days back in the 50s on criminal elements and local thugs in Baghdad and other cities. ...The Syrian regime is no exception for this and is also trying-through recruiting paid killers in Iraq-to spread terror and fear and put obstacles on the road of the change.

I think this is also going to happen in Lebanon too after the Syrian troops are withdrawn. The Syrian regime will recruit (if not doing so right now) criminals to carry out sabotage and assassinations after the Syrians leave the country in an attempt to say "we have warned you from the dangers of withdrawal and now you've got to face the consequences."

Damascus has today tried to explain the vacuous, Assad himself clarifying last Thursday's open-ended statement on military withdrawal with a half-promise to move out in a few months; maybe, still running the numbers, we'll get back to you. In July of 2003 the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin lambasted Syria's favorite Vaudeville skit, "Okay, We'll Withdraw the Troops," performed in 2001, 2002 and 2003 before United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 knocked the spotlight back to Damascus from Baghdad, where it had been stuck for nearly two years. Bashar Assad is a weasel of a strongman, a thug who doesn't let pride interfere with what he wants; who follows the letter of eviction and thumbs his nose at its spirit. He gets nudged, he'll do a little; another nudge, a little more, and when the nudges stop, so does he, and goes back to what he was scheming before. It's guile over bravado, the style of his father Hafez al-Assad; which is why the Ba'athists in Damascus will have outlived their Baghdad counterparts by a few years. To be fair, no army supercedes the laws of physics, and the transportation and quartering of some 15,000 soldiers and "additional in-country operatives" will require logistical planning. But to claim that full withdrawal has never been considered or is a breathtaking feat is shabby stuff. From 2003:

How far Syria is willing to go in reducing its military presence is a hotly debated topic in Lebanon. For months, the local media has been flush with leaks from official Lebanese and Syrian sources claiming that Damascus intends to meet its obligations under the Taif Accord, or even withdraw completely from Lebanon. In early July, a Kuwaiti paper quoted "Arab sources" as saying that Syria had decided to complete the relocation of its forces to the Beqaa by the end of 2003. On July 23, Al-Nahar reported that Syria was planning further redeployments in the next few months that would relocate all of its forces to a narrow belt of territory in the eastern Beqaa. A number of Lebanese newspapers have even cited "informed" (but apparently unofficial) political sources as saying that Syria intends to withdraw completely from Lebanon by the fall of 2004.

Whether or not leaks were accurate, swift and full Syrian retreat is possible; Assad knows, world leaders know. If average citizens don't know, they can easily find out. Son is not as shrewd as Father.

The point, as before, is that this foot-dragging would be of most use to Damascus as a gauge of the free world's resolve. Perceived weakness among President Bush and his jury will beget mischief. A good wretch would try a rough-up here, a beating there, a kidnap — before testing the world's level of outrage to lethal actions. Lebanon can, unfortunately, be considered more like Iraq than the Ukraine. Read the long lists of dead heroes in the Near East over the last forty years: dictators' hitmen swine are good at what they do. Lebanese and their friends across the globe believe that until Damascus is essentially powerless it is always capable. They fear that Syria will take to this silently and slowly, gagging and knifing Lebanon before any protector nation feels justified to intercede.

But that justification may have already been accepted. Tony at Across the Bay picked out a suggestive phrase in public comments by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who followed her subordinate Paula Dobriansky in a hierarchically succession — ending with President Bush himself today — of accolades to Lebanon and rebukes to Syria. Apparently, through the course of a press conference Rice revealed that America's intentions begin at in-country aid and progress to a military presence, under United Nations auspices if necessary:

Events in Lebanon are moving in a very important direction. The Lebanese people are starting to express their aspirations for democracy ...This is something that we support very much. We will focus very much...on what we can help the Lebanese do. ...That means support for free and fair elections, that means election observers if necessary, monitoring if necessary

...As we see how the Lebanese will move forward I think we have to (look at) what can be done in terms of efforts to stabilize the situation should that become necessary.

If the Bush White House is anything, it is fastidiously deliberate. We don't yet have Bashar Assad's reply to Lebanon's "get lost," but we may stop assuming and start resting in firm conviction that as far as Washington is concerned, the Lebanese shall fear no specter.

Since the Cedar Revolution's triumph yesterday, news has accumulated and we can again trace outlines. We know of the uncertainty and the danger; but let's pause to admire the Lebanese, who are in force again in Martyrs' Square, and give thanks for blessings. And promise to not stop for doubt. We never have time for that, anyway. I'll opine this afternoon.

FASTER, INDEED: Michael Ledeen reminds us that freedom, a thing all men want, need only be made available to be securable.

Syria's answer has been delivered in Beirut:

Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami announced the resignation of his government Monday. "Since I was never attached to any position and I belong to a family that offered sacrifices for Lebanon, and since I am keen not to have the government posing as an obstacle for the good of the country, I hereby announce the resignation of the government," Karami told Parliament.

How utterly selfless of Karami, no? So Damascus gave parliament to Beirut. The Cedar Revolution has won its first victory, and now inherits its second challenge of forming an independent governmental authority and constitutionally reestablishing Lebanese polity, while the world waits for Bashar Assad's response to the repeated question, "why haven't your soldiers left Lebanon?" A statement from President Bush, both congratulating the Lebanese and sternly warning Assad against subversion or any further invasion of Lebanon's sovereignty, would be most welcome now.

Two possibilities seem fairly clear in the first moments after the collaborators' resignation: the first, that Syria resists its situation, confronting Lebanese patriots; or the second, that Bashar Assad withdraws politically and militarily, hoping that he can placate Washington, Baghdad and Jerusalem if he tucks his tail firmly enough. President Bush's strong words would add likelihood to the second of the two, an enormous favor for Lebanon; and the White House's decision on diplomatic status will tell us whether Syria's hostility to the civilized world might finally be judged.

RELATED COMMENTARY: Introducing category Lebanon's Cedar Tree.

WE HAVE A STATEMENT: From White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan, the anticipated message of congratulations and warning:

The resignation of the Karami government represents an opportunity for the Lebanese people to have a new government that is truly representative of their country's diversity. ...The new government will have the responsibility of implementing free and fair elections that the Lebanese people have clearly demonstrated they desire. ...We believe the process of a new government should proceed in accordance with the Lebanese constitution and should be free of all foreign interference. That means Syrian military forces and intelligence personnel need to leave the country. That will help ensure the elections are free and fair.

A personal delivery from the president should follow soon.

ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME: Once again, Robert Mayer has tied all the latest news and opinion together with one knot.

'NO ONE CAN INTIMIDATE US ANYMORE': When fear went bust in Iraq, it was only a matter of time before other Near Easterners applied purple ink to their own circumstances. And embraced unity:

In Martyrs' Square a week before, during the first protest held after Hariri's assassination, a sea of flags for different political parties marked the demonstration.

Monday's protest was dramatically different; it raised only one flag: that of Lebanon.

In freedom, we laud the distinct origin and common horizon.

Lebanon's groundswell for independence has been dubbed the "Cedar Revolution." Robert Mayer is ably compiling news reports with others; I will apply a few points to the question of Syria's plans for Beirut's parliamentary struggle. Damascus patsies have retreated from an earlier promise to stage a counter-demonstration, while Syrian muscle has yet done nothing to protesters defying a congregational ban in numbers reported to be many tens of thousands. President Bush's deployment of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield confirms the White House's interest in events. A subordinate envoy demonstrates the administration's suitably low opinion of Damascus strongman Bashar Assad — to be watched, not flattered. And Satterfield's prepared comments bear evidence that Bush has placed Lebanon squarely in his inaugural vision:

Lebanon should not be excluded from the trend of freedom and democracy that is sweeping the region, from Pakistan to the Palestinian territories ... especially as Lebanon has a long history in democracy.

Finally, opposition leaders are certain they can bring down the collaborator parliament with or without Robert's Rules of Order. Scattered reports of Syria making preparations to play long ball only strengthen the observation that Bashar Assad will give the Lebanese their polity by vote and try to take it back with subterfuge and force. But with nationalists like Walid Jumblatt calling Damascus out for its stall, and increasingly impatient and sausive Israelis on one side and Iraqis on the other, we may be watching Damascus bluffing with a bad hand, Assad's words for Rafiq Hariri's assassination — "political suicide" — his own epitaph.

More posturing, contrivance, observation and speculation follows the murder of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. On Thursday Syrian Ba'athists said they would quit Lebanon. A weekend report suggests Damascus coughed up thirty of Saddam Hussein's old henchmen who were until recently working freelance from Syria to unsettle the foundations of Iraqi democracy: twenty-nine plebes and one big fish, Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan. Given Damascus' sixteen years of procrastination, far deeper investment in Iraqi sedition than the thirty, and notable success in escaping all punishment from Washington but largely gestural sanctions, this is chaff to throw off the seeking bolt whose head is a coincidental Franco-American diplomatic alliance and whose shaft is an implacable Lebanese nationalism. Lebanese are suspicious, too:

Eyewitnesses along Lebanon's strategic Beirut-to-Damascus highway say they have seen no sign of any Syrian troop movements yet and many are openly questioning Syria's intentions. ...Beirut's influential An Nahar newspaper is also complaining that Syria's intention to redeploy does not include its feared secret police. Lebanese opposition politicians, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, have accused Syria's secret police of being responsible for the car bomb which killed former Prime Minister Rafik al Hariri.

The Syrian claw doesn't always squeeze, but it's never very far away, from the word of border town residents:

At a time where the Syrian Army's withdrawal remains a heated debate between Syrian and Lebanese officials, Chtaura residents are being cautious about what they say. Local taxi driver Assam Qurbie said: "The place is crawling with mukhabarat and the Syrian Army, if we anger Syria, we are the first to get into trouble."

The same concern was echoed by several Chtaura residents, where the Syrian Army maintains a large presence. "I just hope they leave soon and we never have to see a Syrian soldiers coming into any of our stores," said Qurbie, one of the few residents willing to express his views.

The greatest danger entails Bashar Assad's regime offering the same fate to Lebanon's patriots as their martyr Hariri. If all parties accepted the departure of Syrian troops as make-believe, certainly they wouldn't raise an objection to the mukhabarat "retiring" Lebanon's democratic resistance and returning the population to silent captivity. Damascus has already called for a ban on protests with vague crackdown orders to its hired thugs. Such a turn, however, would depend on deference from Washington and Paris. And while Jacques Chirac's true stance might make for good money in the futures trade, President Bush spoke on Wednesday expecting shadow puppetry from Damascus:

Asked whether he had convinced European leaders to seek sanctions against Syria, Bush said Damascus must withdraw its troops and "secret services" from Lebanon and not try to influence upcoming parliamentary elections there.

"We will see how they respond before there's any further discussions about going back to the United Nations," the US president said during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who backed Bush's statement.

Assuming the president will not stand for Syrian violation, the White House will watch for two Ba'athist responses — either of which, if antagonistic, would exact Washington's physical intervention. The first response will be to a likely no-confidence vote in the Beirut parliament tomorrow. Hariri's death has made a coalition out of Lebanon's politicos, who are undeterred in their bid to vote Syria out; and post-Saddamite Iraqis out of the country's people, who toppled a bust of the man responsible for their thralldom, Bashar Assad's father. Damascus may let the Lebanese have their day, betting 15,000 troops against a single humiliation, leading to the second response.

That will be to the increasing skepticism towards Syrian withdrawal. In the three days since declaring troop movements Damascus has peddled a few excuses for obfuscation and non-performance, including a security threat from Israel. One, of a sort, has emerged: just yesterday, Jerusalem blamed Syria's terrorist bazaar, with Iran's, for the latest bombing murder of Jews. Given that both Israel and Palestinians officially suspect Hezbollah, Syria's most favored client, whose training camps Islamic Jihad — the terrorist group claiming responsibility — has been attending since the 1990s, the possibility of another event manufactured by Damascus is strong. If so, the "threat" from Israel would be altogether justified, and the murderous distraction will quickly falter. Then we may hear more of Bashar Assad's intention, as reported by the Turkish press, to filibuster. Knowing President Bush, it will be met with cloture.

The "uprising" marches on:

Opposition deputies said on Wednesday they would seek to topple Lebanon's Syrian-backed government in parliament and called for a one-day national strike next week. The deputies, riding high on mass protests over the past week, called for an international investigation into last week's assassination of ex-Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri and wanted security chiefs sacked and put on trial.

"Opposition MPs confirm that they will seek a no-confidence vote in the government during (the Feb. 28) general assembly meeting" called to discuss the assassination, they said in a statement after a meeting of 38 MPs in the mountain house of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. The statement called for a strike on Monday, the day the parliament meets.

Walid Jumblatt is a recent and rather startling convert to President Bush's policy of peace through asserted liberty, telling interviewer David Ignatius that "this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," and likening the eight-million-strong Iraqi electoral procession to the Berlin Wall's tumble.

The president's democratic allies have themselves been emboldened. President of the umbrella group Reform Party of Syria, Fadrid Ghadry, has advocated in the Washington Times sandwiching Damascus between dissent inside Syria as well as its Lebanese conquest:

The next U.S. step, following the withdrawal of the U.S. ambassador in Damascus, must be to open a front against the Syria Ba'athists in their own backyard. Not a military front, far from it, but a popular civilian offensive. The United States should aim to create the same disequilibrium in Syria that the Syrian Ba'athists so readily encourage elsewhere.

Mr. Ghadry is slightly concerned about Bashar Assad's inclination to violently resist the popular tide to his southwest. But if the last ten days have taught us one lesson, it's that a thug shrinks from daylight. Though President Bush will be behind closed doors in Bratislava, an observation point has been added to the collection already tracking Syria, its scope trained on Beirut. Bush is no Eisenhower, Beirut no Budapest. There is surely hell to pay if Lebanese patriots come to harm by Syrian hands. And we should have some faith in the Martyrs' Square tent city; if they follow the Orange Revolution with their own Red and White, their representative counterparts, ready to fit in legal terms the shouts from outside, are not far behind Kiev — and seeking to win for themselves much more. (Hat tip, Robert Mayer.)

FEINT: Bashar Assad's regime has released a statement promoting "commitment" to withdrawing its 15,000 troops from Lebanon. No explanation or time window was offered, and we should remember that on Monday it was "soon" — as it was in 1989. The dominative mind is not an awfully creative one; Damascus' gesture is probably a probe of Washington. If not rebuked and rejected by a distrustful White House the Ba'athists would do best to wait as long as possible before ordering any significant force movements. The longer the delay, the more tempting Damascus will find a roll-up to be.

But via Jim Geraghty, some are convinced that the Bush administration does not intend to let the Lebanese be silenced. And, helpfully enough, strange bedfellow Walid Jumblatt called the statement "a new farce."

WHAT EVERY TYRANT FEARS IS UNDER HIS BED: Syria's democrats.

When rightist commentators fit "Ukraine" and "Lebanon" in the same sentence, I nodded at the parallel but was unsure of causality. According to this CBC report, the power of the Orange Revolution and Lebanon's miraculously porous media net have catalyzed the seized country's spirit:

A small tent city has popped up on Martyrs' Square in Beirut as anti-Syrian protesters call for political changes in the wake of former prime minister Rafik Hariri's assassination. Thousands of demonstrators have spent four nights in the square and more are joining them each day.

Inspired by recent protests in Ukraine's Independence Square, they say they're willing to stay as long as it takes to bring down Lebanon's pro-Syrian government and force 15,000 Syrian troops out of the country.

Satyagraha is just one method to wring justice out of the inequitable, and which should not be abused. But if the captor has a conscience — or is forced to feign one, as Syria is now by the strength of the free world — the peaceful army in Martyrs' may see Independence's fortune in battle.

Leftist demonstrators in Brussels, Belgium couldn't agree on why they despise President Bush so, bereft of common cause, they settled for shared sentiment:

An alliance of 88 environmental, human rights, peace and other groups have planned protests near the U.S. Embassy for Monday and near the EU headquarters on Tuesday. The Web site of the 'Stop Bush' alliance accused Bush of "crimes against humanity," saying he undermines international law and is an obstacle to the fight against global warming.

President Bush's crimes, according to one protester, include those not yet committed, namely driving a wedge between European leaders and their constituents. A single, sign-wielding man can hardly speak for millions; nor is it clear whether his elected representatives will join him in principled opposition to anything and everything for which the American president stands:

Bush called on Syria to withdraw its forces from Lebanon. As Bush spoke, thousands of opposition supporters in Beirut shouted insults at Syria and demanded the resignation of Lebanon's pro-Syrian government, marking a week since the assassination of Rafik Hariri, Lebanon's most prominent politician.

Syria must end its occupation of Lebanon, Bush said to applause.

"The Lebanese people have the right to be free, and the United States and Europe share an interest in an independent, democratic Lebanon," he said, adding that if Syrians stay out of Lebanon's parliamentary elections in the spring, the vote "can be another milestone of liberty."

What say the protesters? Is Bush's demand for the Lebanese to enjoy the same rights as most Westerners a trick? A lie? Listening to a chant or two, or reading the sort of literature that follows these crowds should give us our answer. Hell no, the Brussels Seven Hundred won't go until an elected leader is sacked and his replacement relents to their science fiction credenda: what Lebanon really needs are lower carbon dioxide levels.

2,500 miles away it is democratic sovereignty, not Salem's greenhouse demons, that rests foremost on the minds of twenty- or thirtyfold as they rally in the streets of Beirut:

Tens of thousands of opposition supporters shouted insults at Syria and demanded the resignation of their pro-Syrian government in a Beirut demonstration Monday, marking a week since the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Beating drums and waving Lebanese flags, those of their own parties and portraits of past leaders killed during the 1975-90 civil war, the protesters gathered at the site where Hariri was killed Feb. 14 in a bombing that the opposition blames on Damascus.

Some in the crowd yelled "Syria out!" and "We don't want a parliament that acts as a doorkeeper for the Syrians," competing with loud insults shouted against Syrian President Bashar Assad. In Damascus, Arab League chief Amr Moussa said Syria will "soon" take steps to withdraw its army from Lebanese areas in accordance with a 1989 agreement.

"Soon." No doubt Damascus seeks to mollify a nationalist righteous indignation that has coalesced and sharpened into focused, tireless throngs. It can only try to diffuse the protests; it's too late, if it were ever possible, to stifle public outrage. And Damascus wouldn't dare use violence. These are not the Syrian Kurds, whose catalyst for revolt nearly one year ago was successfully obscured before a series of riots were crushed beneath Bashar Assad's heel. Lebanon has been invaded, its once-liberal polity violated; the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was brazen and its consequences have not been ignored by international news agencies.

At the same time, only one government has both openly and repeatedly called for the withdrawal of Syrian troops, and it is this administration's implied threat of punitive force that stays Bashar Assad's hand. No direct recognition of this fact is apparent from coverage of Beirut protests but gratitude is unnecessary. Solidarity in principle is enough:

Many held pictures of Hariri and sang patriotic songs. Some protesters held a copy of the Quran in one hand and the cross in another hand to signify Muslim-Christian national unity.

Earnest pluralism only exists in an open society. Those seven hundred might take a trip to Beirut and discover men who are truly "dangerous to civil rights." But the leftists may not understand the point of Lebanese protests. Kyoto's American rejection, remember, was through a unanimous 1997 Senate vote. The elected officials responsible must be considered, with George W. Bush, "obstacles" to the transnational edict; a troubling inconvenience. So the deconstructionists among the seven hundred, arriving in Beirut, might argue that a dictator has a right to do with others whatever he pleases, and the dogmatists might argue that that dictator has a Hegelian duty thereof. Both groups can believe this sort of nonsense because they have, for most or all of their lives, painlessly enjoyed the freedoms for which Lebanese now risk much. In abundance, waste; in scarcity, treasure.

By now we know that former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was murdered on February 14th, that President Bush recalled the American ambassador to Syria while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice led condemnation of Bashar Assad's Syria, implying that Damascus was responsible for the assassination. Rice also renewed charges of Syrian sedition in Iraq, something well-known and oft expressed over the months in Baghdad. President Bush followed the secretary's comments by announcing suspicion of Syrian fingerprints on Hariri's death, intolerance for Syria's wide and long-standing participation in terrorism, and a warning to Assad's totalitarian regime as blunt as that which the president delivered in his State of the Union address. Called "out of step" with the region's move towards democracy, Damascus' Ba'athists were left to reflect on the fate of Iraq's Ba'athists.

In Lebanon, the people wield their own outrage. A massive, anti-Syrian protest gobbled up Hariri's funeral procession. While Reuters was reminded of the Lebanese Civil War (instigated by, among other factors, Yasser Arafat's terrorist cabal), one might be inspired to look back to Lebanon's brief post-Franco liberalism.

Following unprecedented public protest against Syrian captivity, an arm of Beirut's marionette parliament has turned to cut itself from Damascus:

Pressure on Syria to pull out of Lebanon intensified Friday when nearly a third of MPs called on the pro-Damascus regime in Beirut to step down and make way for an interim government to oversee a withdrawal.

More than 40 of parliament's 128 deputies and dozens of opposition activists called on their fellow citizens to join a "democratic and peaceful uprising for independence in response to the criminal and terrorist policy of the Lebanese and Syrian authorities."

Will the memory of Rafiq Hariri guide Lebanese independence towards democracy? If the people fight for his legacy, Fouad Ajami believes so, marking it as a departure:

There is talk nowadays of spreading liberty to Arab lands, changing the ways of the Arabs, putting an end to regimes that harbor terror. The restoration of Lebanon's sovereignty ought to be one way for the Arabs to break with the culture of dictators and police states, and with the time of the car bombs. Hariri sought for his country a businessman's peace. His way was a break with the politics of charisma and ideology that has wrecked the Arab world; he believed in philanthropy and practical work. His vision may not have been stirring. But there was dignity in it, and a reprieve from the time of darkness.

Common sense bests profundity.