Soldier-blogger Greyhawk is correct when he calls two years of gentry media reporting from or about Iraq "journalistic malpractice." For those of us following the first substantive chance for Lebanese independence in sixteen years, news has been remarkably commensurate with the in-country reality. Exceptions exist, though none have been so close to the skewed Iraq template as an Associated Press report by one Katherine Shrader entitled "Hezbollah Grows as Lebanon Political Force." Shrader omits, dilutes context and essentially plays pamphleteer for a terrorist organization. An earnest fisking is in order.
Shrader's lede is her thesis:
Hezbollah, a terrorist group in the eyes of the United States, stands as a political force in Lebanon that could emerge even stronger in parliamentary elections in April and May, and that presents a conundrum for the Bush administration.
The level head wonders — how? Through the course of the article Shrader doesn't offer any evidence how Hezbollah could grow stronger without the overwhelming physical presence of Syrian troops, Bashar Assad's spy networks, or uninterrupted supply lines from Tehran and Damascus. But she certainly tries to persuade those of us disinclined to believe Islamist scorpions thrive in pluralist daylight; and makes to hearten those who would happily entertain the prospect. She interprets the White House's statements on Hezbollah typically:
[T]he president this week subtly raised the possibility that the Shiite group could be viewed as something other than a terrorist organization."We view Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. I would hope that Hezbollah would prove that they are not by laying down arms and not threatening peace," Bush said in a carefully crafted statement framing a new approach to the organization.
But it's not a new approach; terrorist organization or not, Hezbollah has not yet found itself in Washington's military sights. Given that the White House is speaking quite literally — insofar as when men abandon terrorism they cease to be terrorists — and has not made any concessions, the request for Hezbollah's disarmament is much more an invitation to a peaceful end.
To her credit, Shrader introduces a scholar-diplomat who argues against her premise. Even if she fights him all the way down the page:
David Walker, president of the Middle East Institute, sees it as almost inevitable that Hezbollah someday will be taken off the State Department list of terror groups. Hezbollah has been on since the list's inception in 1997. He said he believes the desire to be participants in a new, more democratic environment will require the group to give first loyalty to the people it represents, who don't want constant warfare. "The Lebanese are becoming more and more nationalistic, and that doesn't work to the advantage of a political faction that depends on outsiders," mainly Iran and Syria, said Walker, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel and Egypt.Hezbollah's politically savvy leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has rebuffed Bush's suggestions. "We are ready to remain until the end of time a terrorist organization in Bush's view, but we are not ready to give up protection of our country, our people, their blood and their honor," Nasrallah said this week on Hezbollah's television station.
Yes, "their people." What has Shrader to say of demonstrations in Beirut, an activity dominated by the Cedar Revolution's democrats, only recently joined by Hezbollah, who with Syrian workers and Palestinian ringers could scrounge together a coarse mob about one-third the size of the Cedars' one-month tribute to former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri?
Inside the country, massive street demonstrations converged on downtown Beirut, including a surprisingly large pro-Syria gathering organized by Hezbollah.
Surprise, as in, "you'd think emptying villages would produce more of a crowd"? With nothing to say about the March 14th demonstration, Shrader changes course to sharpen her point:
Internationally, the European Union has also rejected recent calls to add Hezbollah to its terror list, as some diplomats worry about changing policy toward the group at such a sensitive time.
But she's in fact pruned here. Shrader should have known that on Thursday, March 10th, three blocs in the European parliament made motions to condemn Hezbollah as a terrorist group; none were approved, but the parliament stated that it "calls on Syria not to tolerate any form of terrorism, including support for the operations of Hezbollah and other armed groups." One week later, Thursday, March 17th, EU broadcast regulators severed the Continent's connection to Hezbollah's satellite propaganda. Said a supporter on taking action in a "sensitive time":
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom welcomed the European Union's decision Thursday. "This is an important step in the struggle against terror," he said.
Shrader's aversion to publicly available information continues:
The White House also recognizes that members of the next government may be enemies of the United States. "Maybe someone will run for office and say, 'Vote for me, I look forward to blowing up America,'" Bush said Wednesday when asked about Hezbollah.
Let's pause to reflect on the novelty of a press sophisticate missing President Bush's dry humor. Now let's continue, and examine what the president said in full:
I like the idea of people running for office. It's a positive effect when you run for office, you know. Maybe someone will run for office and say, "Vote for me, I look forward to blowing up America." I don't know. I don't know if that'll be their platform or not. But it's — I don't think so. I think people generally run for office say, "Vote for me; I'm looking forward to fixing your potholes or making sure you got bread on the table."But Hezbollah is on the terrorist list for a reason, and [it] remains on the terrorist list for a reason. Our position's not changed on Hezbollah.
Bush need only imply the success of liberals in Iraq and Afghanistan, which is what he did here, though at the risk of abbreviation from reporters like Shrader. Mercifully, Shrader gives us Walker again:
Walker said Nasrallah has to straddle a complicated problem: There are those who believe he will lose support if he gives up his military and his confrontation with Israel, and yet the Lebanese people are tired of violence after 15 years after civil war."Hezbollah is more popular in Lebanon today, but that popularity is fragile," he said.
Hezbollah has thrived, of course, in civil disorder and the two-decade Syrian pall. Near Eastern Sturmabteilungen, what will the terrorists do without Damascus right beside? Walker's speculation is refined by yet another qualifer to Shrader's floating thesis:
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Satterfield told Lebanese television this month that the Lebanese people will get to speak for themselves regarding Hezbollah.
And we know what the Lebanese are already saying.
HEZBOLLAH DONE RIGHT: First, Amir Taheri bills himself as a commentator and not, like Shrader, a reporter. Second, regardless of Taheri's politics he provides, with thorough analysis, a more objective assessment of Hezbollah's threat to Lebanese pluralism: armed and ruthless but like any authoritarian group conflicted in its loyalty, and only narrowly supported.
It's begun:
A jubilant crowd gathered on Wednesday night near the seafront Syrian intelligence headquarters, now guarded by the Lebanese army, where they danced, chanted and sang patriotic songs....In Akkar, further north, police said Lebanese army units had torn down two bronze statutes of Assad, the current Syrian leader, and his father, former president Hafez al-Assad. Several huge public portraits of the Assads were earlier this week hauled down in Beirut.
"The outlaw dire took mortal hurt; a mighty wound showed on his shoulder, and sinews cracked, and the bone-frame burst." The Syrian monster leaves now only to die. So done, like all free men, by the Lebanese.
All that was, one week ago, bound to happen soon but to unknown ends has turned out well for Lebanese democratic sovereignty. Bashar Assad does not consider his position strong enough for arbitrary suppression in Beirut, after all. His farcical speech and proposal for treaty performance, while not retracted, has been chipped and reshaped at the direction of America, Europe and the United Nations. In this political current, Assad must satisfy an implicit reasonable weekly deportation quota, one that finally includes — at least cosmetically — Syria's mukhabarat. His recent multiple acedences have bound him by word, complicating both his own evasion and client sympathy. The Washington-led alliance serving Lebanon's Cedars has indeed been faithful to a tireless popular revolt that has only grown in strength, numbers and plain endurance.
Four thousand Syrian troops are out of Lebanon, two offices of Damascus' imported Gestapo are vacant and the seventh international exchange for Lebanon's freedom has begun, on the strength of events, smoothly and quietly. United Nations envoy Terje Roed-Larsen publicly erased Syrian hopes of diplomatic refuge on Sunday, advising the Ba'athist dictatorship to honor Security Council Resolution 1559 and extracting a promise for a substantive departure timetable. Seeing no reason to draw back for a punch with Syria already flinching, the Bush administration offered Damascus a light spurring for encouragement, on Sunday bidding Bashar Assad again to put "action" to "words"; and the next day stipulating terms, with one statement advising Damascus not to interpret its own plea bargain by setting Lebanese polity as a cue for exeunt, and with the other that the United Nations not let it happen. The White House immediately got what it wanted from Secretariat, Roed-Larsen swearing that "the political process in Lebanon is irrelevant to the parties' obligation to implement Security Council Resolution 1559." Bashar Assad knows he has until May.
Since being anonymously reported and officially denied, news of the Bush administration's "softening" to terrorist organization Hezbollah has been placed in terms much more favorable to Syria than is warranted. President Bush is not giving in to Lebanon's migrant terrorists: he's backing them into a corner. Hezbollah's bluff was called. The Damascus-backed street toughs and their supporters could only crow about a staged, flatulent demonstration for a few days before well over a million Lebanese assembled to mourn and commemorate former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. Even if another few rounds of flag-burning and infidel-damning can be had, the sudden conspicuity of these rallies — angry, brutish males speckled with a few patently ugly women like every other "Arab street demonstration" before Iraqis set a pluralist precedent — will sink them.
Bush and his administration know this. They've seen the quick evaporation of fanaticism before. What the president is offering to Hezbollah is not an "olive branch," nor "respect," nor "inclusion," but the chance to escape destruction by those who define the organization correctly.
White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan spoke on the subject with reporters yesterday. He clarified Hezbollah as a subset of Lebanese independence, insofar as it is an obstacle to Lebanon's democracy in current form:
Hezbollah is a terrorist organization. Our view has not changed when it comes to that. And 1559 also calls for all militias to be disarmed. And we want to see 1559 fully complied with.
The Bush administration's locution is meticulous. Consider McClellan's echo of his own words from August 19, 2004:
The Iraqi government has made it clear that he needs to leave the Shrine of Ali, that he needs to disarm and disband the militia. We need to see action by him to follow through on those demands.
Scott McClellan was speaking of Iran-commanded seditionist Muqtada al-Sadr, whose gangs were demolished shortly thereafter. Notably, this White House classification came after al-Sadr's failed April insurrection. Hezbollah will work from within a very tight margin on account of Washington's long memory.
Beirut politics also seem to be on a short azimuth. Omar Karami's reappointment was a blow to Lebanese democrats that glanced. A petitionary army holds steady and behind them, a martial one. The opposition's writ to the cabinet stands, the Syrian-propped government's position is as confidently besieged as ever before, and rumors about the recently completed independent investigation of Rafiq Hariri's murder could deal a political ace to the Cedars. Walid Jumblatt, of rival-turned-colleague Michael Aoun, said, "Let the best democrat win." As winds blow now, such a man may easily.
Commentary on Lebanon tonight. Until then, the words of two. First, "Longshoreman Philosopher" Eric Hoffer:
It is not actual suffering but a taste of better things which excites people to revolt.
And this woman, of whom Hoffer was undoubtedly speaking.
CORRECTION: Tomorrow. More information will be available and I'll be in a clearer frame of mind to make my own sense of it.
The Cedars have returned once more to Martyrs' Square, one month in remembrance of Rafiq Hariri: and not to be outdone by the thuggery of Hezbollah. Via Cliff May, Walid Phares has more.
Some ten thousand Lebanese demonstrators offered a massive placard cheer as their latest call for independence while near the port city of Tyre, a certain bust of Hafez Assad fell again — and forever. Further commentary today or tomorrow.
Lebanese democrats held another rally in Martyrs' Square yesterday and according to Claudia Rosett, who writes in today's New York Sun, Cedar demonstrations will take place tomorrow and Monday — the one-month anniversary of Rafiq Hariri's murder. Elsewhere in Lebanon, these children have the right idea for those who would rule by force.
A LITTLE VICTORY: The European Union parliament has declared Hezbollah a terrorist organization, subject to disrupton and arrest, and is requesting member nations do the same. [Correction: the report is wrong. Blocs suggested it but motions were not approved.]
Via the Corner, Farid Ghadry of the Reform Party of Syria continues where Walid Phares left off:
We expect more pressure on the Syrian regime that will weaken it further. Their biggest assets have been deployed for all of us to see while the United States has yet to deploy its arsenal to show the Ba'athists in Damascus our capabilities. The patience the President is showing is leading him down the path of a united and concerted effort by the US and Europe to destroy Ba'athism once and for all. We believe that the Syrian Ba'ath party is a terrorist party that must be dealt with swiftly. It is far richer, more organized, and still has a legitimate country from which it can fight democracy and freedom. The United States must know that if Ba'athism goes, so will Hezbollah's powers and possibly the Mullahs in Tehran who will be standing all alone in a sea of democracy.
One striking observation Phares made while talking to Brit Hume last night was that Syria's appropriation of liberal means, directly in Damascus and through Hezbollah in Beirut, could be viewed in this moment of Syrian decline not as audacity but desperation — that these authoritarians made twisted imitations precisely because the real thing worked for the rebelling Lebanese, caught instantly and elegantly on film and far superior to anything an old-fashioned, disjoined Ba'athist propaganda board could cook up. The British Telegraph narrates this Near Eastern duel of iconographic merchandise: T-shirts, stickers, posters for the Cedar democrats; grey ball caps, Mickey Mao-style, for the prodded Bashar-kateers. Revolutionaries believe the advantage is theirs:
[M]ost of the branding has been devised for [Hezbollah's] opponents, campaigning to drive 14,000 Syrian troops from their soil. This has been done by a core of young Lebanese advertising executives. "We are branding the revolution so people remember it," said one creator of the "Independence '05" slogan and campaign.
Not many can argue, regardless of their sympathies, which side's rallies have been easier on the eyes. Lebanon's stake goes far deeper than the public square, of course, but perception carries more mass to it in a young age of immediate, high-fidelity, far-flung broadcast; it is democratic revolution "Like You've Never Seen it Before." And the Cedar demonstrations have delineated a chasm profoundly separating a dictator's fakery from the instinctive, free-spirited popular uprising. Every opposition rally has been a resplendent cross-section of the country — young and old, man and woman. Hezbollah's managed happening was in pictures the archetypical, homogenous Near Eastern frenzied mass; Damascus' put-up the following day only slightly less rigid. Bashar Assad's bunch worshiped his bodily sempiternity while the Cedars honored the universal causes for which Rafiq Hariri fought. Syria's dead sea celebrated the whelm of collectivism by shouting "With our souls and blood we sacrifice ourselves for Assad," while the Lebanese forest embraced free will's self-sacrifice through "Freedom, sovereignty, independence!" The revolution is driven by human desire. Assad's fan club is mostly driven by roughneck. We can deduce, then, whose demonstrations can maintain tempo and win greater international sympathy as they continue.
That foreign acclaim is critical. As is the world's law, all civility rests on the means to wield greater force against those who would violently bereave it — something of which many Westerners are unaware, our means so incontestable. The lingering threat to the Cedar Revolution will be statist violence. Yet Bashar Assad is a predator who humors Beirut because he fears what is physically greater than he: that free world drawn in by the sight and inspiration of the Cedars and now fixed on the situation. Damascus cannot crush Lebanese independence so long as Washington's alliance pledges safekeeping and is taken at its word; that pledge stands if the Cedars keep the world's heart. Lebanon's patriots are well-armed for war by words, and may have lured Damascus into competition in free expression — tyranny's short suit. They must only hold off the entrance of brute strength through their tutelars, led by Washington.
UNSURPASSED: Via Robert Mayer, more on Independence Days 2005.
It was locally understood that Beirut's revolutionary political opposition had declined to offer up a replacement for fallen Prime Minister Omar Karami, and that the independence front would simply hold any new government to the same major concessions. But if Karami was an obstacle to Lebanese emancipation ten days ago, his reappointment through Damascene machinations could not be what the opposition — looking for, in Walid Jumblatt's words, a "neutral cabinet" — had in mind:
President Emile Lahoud, buoyed by a mass rally in support of his Syrian backers, began consultations with parliamentarians likely to keep Syria's political grip on its tiny neighbour. Speaker Nabih Berri's bloc named Omar Karami as prime minister, as did the deputies of guerrilla group Hizbollah. Karami resigned as prime minister last week after huge anti-Syrian protests in Beirut but stayed on as caretaker. Other pro-Syrian deputies also named him, making it all but certain Karami would be reinstated to lead the country to elections in May.
Today, Beirut's parliament echoes yesterday's the city's square: what the Syrian office in Lebanon lacks in sincerity and popularity it will attempt to remunerate with dominant political influence and street numbers. And like Bashar Assad's Saturday address, Damascus' intent has been to answer its jurors' demands verbatim with a delivery bearing no resemblance to its order.
The European Union's dutiful promise for election aid was announced yesterday, and the halting clash between Strasbourg's pleasant remarks and Syria's dress-up is a bit like bringing goodies to a bedridden wolf in a bonnet:
The EU will offer Lebanon help in holding a May general election and sees a new chance for the country to rebuild after the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami, the bloc's presidency said on Tuesday."The resignation of the Karami government under popular pressure has led to a new situation which should be taken advantage of," Nicolas Schmit, deputy foreign minister of Luxembourg, which holds the EU presidency, told the European Parliament.
With Karami back in, would the situation grow old again? Could anything be "taken advantage of" if Karami's first obligations included dismantling the apparatus he'd helped represent for five months and his second, self-imposed resignation? With United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan suggesting that Resolution 1559 in fact does not necessitate any method or process to Syrian withdrawal, it's suddenly unclear whether Europe — including the heretofore adamant Jacques Chirac — would in fact call any cabinet "acceptable" and provide all the auspices needed for Bashar Assad to suture Lebanon's polity shut again.
Hardly a soul takes Syria's charades seriously; least of all President Bush, who has only sharpened his language. So will anyone cut the performance short?
Like their natural ally Bashar Assad, the thugs of Hezbollah could only build a "counter-protest" on impressment. From Rich in Beirut:
Future TV reports from eyewitnesses that Syrian and Lebanese intelligence agents have been conscripting participants for today's pro-Syria protest from villages in the north of Lebanon. Residents who have evaded pressure have also been pursued by units of the Lebanese army and handed over to Lebanese or Syrian intelligence, according to these reports. The village that Future TV focused on was Akkar (near the border with Syria), but eyewitnesses from other villages are reporting similar stories as well.As part of the same story, Future TV also reports busloads of Syrian nationals coming across the northern border to attend the Hizbullah-organized demonstration to be held in downtown Beirut alongside opposition protests.
Few will be fooled, least of all Lebanon's authentic demonstrators. (Hat tip, Across the Bay.)
In the West, if there were a fine time to spell out Syria's punishment for stamping on Lebanon's will and flouting the free world's authority, it would be during or soon after President Bush's speech at the National Defense University, which is currently underway.
OUT: Cliff May reports that Bush is calling Damascus out. No word on whether the president has adopted a punitive stance.
FINER POINTS: From the text of the speech:
The Lebanese people have heard the speech by the Syrian president. They've seen these delaying tactics and half measures before.The time has come for Syria to fully implement Security Council Resolution 1559. All Syrian military forces and intelligence personnel must withdraw before the Lebanese elections for those elections to be free and fair.
Meanwhile, Reuters draws a few conclusions from a tiny glimpse at ongoing work in the interim following the sixth exchange:
Options could include seeking a new U.N. resolution that would demand withdrawal and possibly threaten international sanctions, officials and diplomats have said. No decisions have been made and the international discussions are an early stage, an administration official said.
On one side the absurd; UNSCR 1559 is as complete and binding as can be, and strong arguments have been made for occupation difficulties arising precisely because of five months awarded the Baghdad dictator in late 2002 and early 2003 while the Security Council waxed dada.
If the seventh exchange on Lebanese independence is still in preparation, it remains to be seen how long the Bush administration and cohort can maintain the same posture and message before Bashar Assad disregards international pressure altogether and strikes at Beirut, politically or otherwise. We must believe he's itching to try.
GOOD FOR BRIT HUME: Special Report, specifically White House Correspondent Carl Cameron, rightly identified Hezbollah's throng as a coercive undertaking.
IN THE FACE OF A TAUNT: Says Rich, "this game will not be about numbers."
FINALLY: While two leftist news agencies were tickled by the prospect of terrorists herding a remarkably uniformly thirtysomething-male fascist's rally, Omar couldn't help but see shades of his days under Saddam Hussein — and something else.
