At a press briefing yesterday, State Department Deputy Spokesman Adam Ereli announced that Washington was "look[ing] forward to receiving," even if one week late, the United Nations assessment on Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. As with the international body's untactfully forthright implication of Bashar Assad's regime and Lebanese quislings with the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, one wonders if the Bush administration knows, UN obscurantism and all, what must be coming:

Syria has not withdrawn a significant part of its intelligence presence in Lebanon, undermining its claim Tuesday to have ended its 29-year intervention in its western neighbor, U.S., European and U.N. officials said. ...U.N. member states and the Lebanese opposition have told the United Nations that Syrian military intelligence has taken up new positions "in the south of Beirut and elsewhere, and has been using headquarters of parties affiliated with the government of Syria as well as privately rented apartments for their purposes," said a report Annan made to the Security Council and released Tuesday.

"Five thousand" is one of the head counts from official channels, matching the claim published by the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Seyassah two weeks ago. Of course no one is surprised: in Syrian behavior there is the compulsion found in any authority that rules through strength. Damascus' policies are functions of acquiring and subjugating, a claw and mouth every which way. But there are spies and browbeaters that haven't left; and four targeted explosions have gone off over the past weeks, killing and injuring innocent Lebanese. What has always concerned the Cedar Revolution's leaders and protectors is the deviation principle in acts of violence. That physical threat is taken seriously:

The United States is counting on a new U.N. verification team sent to Lebanon this week to investigate Syria's intelligence presence and to provide "a considered judgment" that will "inform our deliberations" at the Security Council. If Syria does not comply, Washington and Paris may propose punitive steps, Ereli said.

America and Europe's consignation of Syria's Ba'athists to a category of the barbaric and single-minded is remarkable, an apparent diplomatic excommunication. Rehabilitation of or reconciliation with Syria is not a concern, certainly not now. Washington and Paris view Damascus from Beirut's perspective; the more they see of Syria, the farther they will push the regime into isolation. Badgered by at least one journalist with obvious sympathies for Hafez Assad's stepwise invasion of his neighbor, Adam Ereli spoke at a press briefing yesterday almost exclusively in terms of Lebanese independence. The spokesman did so in a few exchanges, this last one the most striking:

QUESTION: Now that the Syrians are complying or seemingly complying, just two questions, Adam. Aren't you — let me give you the question totally from an Arab world point of view. Aren't you surprised to how fast the Syrians complied? Because even the Lebanese were asking for this withdrawal. It never came. We had to have what we had, and then we're facing it now. And then joining the question maybe of a future normalization, are you — how fast can the U.S. go back to normal relations with Syria, now that we have an official withdrawal?

MR. ERELI: I don't want to predict next steps we might take diplomatically, just because I think that's premature. As far as are we surprised at how fast it happened, I think we're pleased that the events — we're pleased that events have developed the way they've developed. We're pleased that Syria has withdrawn its forces from Lebanon. As I said before, this is an important step. It's not the end of the road. It needs to be verified. But it does mark a positive development certainly in the affairs of Lebanon and certainly for the people of Lebanon.

...

QUESTION: Adam, just a follow-up on that question? You've used a lot of language — "historic step, important step, positive step" — in regards to Lebanon. Are you not willing to say that this might also be an important step towards the normalization of relations between the United States and Syria if the Syrians would —

MR. ERELI: Well, you know, again, I don't want to — you're making it sound like our relations with Syria are not normalized. I mean, the fact that we've recalled our Ambassador for consultations is — does not mean we don't have a diplomatic presence, does not mean we're not engaged regularly with the Government of Syria, does not mean that we don't have normal relations. It is a step we took because that's what we thought was appropriate and called for and necessary at the time. But one should be under no misapprehension that we can't conduct business, the business we need to conduct with the Government of Syria with — in the context of our present relationship. So you're asking me, where are we going with Syria — and everybody's asked in a different way — where are we going to go with Syria as a result of this step? I can't tell you. I don't know.

Ereli probably does but owes nothing more to his questioners than they already know: one month ago the Bush administration quite visibly extended a hand to Syrian democratists in exile. In one ear we hear that the White House sees no future in the Assad regime and in the other we're told that one of the first steps of a post-Iraq operation in regime change President Bush will require is a solid foundation of umbrella groups equipped to help democratize with local familiarity and liberalist experience that American troops and the oppressed native populace could never, repspectively, provide as quickly or as reliably. Suddenly Bashar Assad's worth is a measure of how little he will obstruct Lebanese, then Syrian, freedom.

The chaos from any violence against the Cedars is what keeps Ereli modest. Even Condoleezza Rice has cautioned against "speculation" and trying to "predict" events, but anyone wise makes for a safe journey to an intended destination.