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Last Trades
 
Michael Ubaldi, March 3, 2005.
 

Following his remarks at a press conference Tuesday, President Bush on Wednesday sharpened his message to Bashar Assad's Syria:

Bush applauded the tough get-out message sent to Syria a day earlier by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier at a joint news conference in London.

"Both of them stood up and said loud and clear to Syria, 'You get your troops and your secret services out of Lebanon so that good democracy has a chance to flourish,'" the president said. "The world is speaking with one voice when it comes to making sure that democracy has a chance to flourish in Lebanon," Bush added in a Maryland speech as his team put its strongest pressure yet on Damascus.


The president is not speaking figuratively. Statist Russia, as reliable an enabler of despots as in its Soviet era, is publicly advising Damascus, Moscow's good arms customer, to at least honor its obligation to the 1989 Taif Accords:

"Syria should withdraw from Lebanon, but we all have to make sure that this withdrawal does not violate the very fragile balance which we still have in Lebanon, which is a very difficult country ethnically," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the BBC late on Wednesday.


Lavrov finished with a left-handed endorsement of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559: to wit, Moscow joined China, Algeria, Pakistan, Brazil and the Philippines in abstaining from the September 2004 question but deep down the motherland knows that process is process and Syrian troops must go home. Bashar Assad got the right hand from Cairo earlier today, where the foreign ministers of twenty-one dictatorships and one democracy agreed that Hafez al-Assad would have meant what he put in writing sixteen years ago, and his son should duly make up for Syria's unfortunate military distention across Lebanon. Too bad for Bashar, who was on his way to court the Saudis, and probably steer the conversation towards how Damascus can show the world it has released Lebanon without actually ending its military seizure.

While the Lebanese revolutionaries from Michel Aoun to Walid Jumblatt work out how best to shear the political slug keeping Beirut cold-riveted to Damascus, statements and events today and tomorrow should tell us what Syria thinks of solidarity in righteous indignation on Martyrs' Square and inside state executive offices.

American commitment to the protection of Lebanese citizens is evident, and only strengthened by global assent to the Cedar Revolution. Whether Bashar Assad is desperate, knowing that permanent loss of Lebanon is the introduction to his end; or rash, or stupid, is a course running independent of foreign intentions. The Lebanese will have their guardian; the question is whether they might truly need it. Jonah Goldberg at National Review found a snippet from an unofficial intelligence information transit:

Sources in Beirut report Syria has reinforced units deployed on hills overlooking Lebanese capital. DEBKAfile’s military sources have also sighted unusual Syrian military movements in the last 24 hours in Lebanon and Syria.

The source has a spotty record for accuracy, yet the rumor would follow in line with Syria's apparent latest word on its week-old withdrawal pronouncement:

Ahead of a round of Arab meetings Thursday, Syria told Arab countries it insists on keeping 3,000 troops and early-warning stations inside Lebanon to maintain its security, an Arab diplomat said. But Arab leaders said the proposal is unworkable.

...The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Syria still wants to keep about 3,000 troops in Lebanon "for the time being" — without giving a timetable — and to keep "early monitoring stations" in eastern Lebanon. The Syrian army already operates radar stations in Dahr el-Baidar, on mountain tops bordering Syria.


Diplomacy between Damascus and Beirut's international cooperative is mid-stride to its sixth step since the murder of Rafiq Hariri. The Lebanese can keep neither political nor popular assembly intact with Syria in the room; withdrawal may be fatal rather than ameliorating to Damascus, caught by a Syrian revolution inspired by Lebanon; and President Bush can hardly go further in reproach. If Bashar Assad is as impetuous as thought to be, no more than three future exchanges should take place before one party moves to break from concentric circles.

DON'T COME AROUND HERE NO MORE: Saudi Arabia slapped away the tin cup, and it's unlikely that a United Nations agent dispatched to Lebanon will be the retardant to events that Damascus seeks.