If you believe British folklorist Ruth Tongue, Rawhead and Bloody Bones was a night creature who hunched beneath the staircase, waiting to snatch — with its exceptionally long, slender arm — a child wandering the house at odd hours. You remained safe from harm, so goes the tale, if you stayed put where you were supposed to be under the blanket; and if you didn't, you'd never see old Rawhead coming. In Beirut and beyond the jubilation is tempered by wariness; sacking Karami's government wasn't easy but it didn't come with blood, and for three decades Syria has dealt with the Lebanese in nothing but. Even if Bashar Assad does pull his troops, his spies and his brownshirts back to Syria, the Lebanese know to watch their backs. In National Review today, Walid Phares put scholarly and in terms of Israel what Mohammed at Iraq the Model recently drew from street talk in terms of Lebanon. Phares:

Bashar Assad was offered a way out several times by the U.S. since 2002 but he continues refusing to relinquish control. With a U.N. resolution pending, and a vigorous Lebanese diaspora putting pressure worldwide, Syria's Baath is in real trouble in Lebanon. Hence, they are now using the tools at their disposal: the jihadist organizations. By striking Israel, they aim to force it to retaliate in a limited way, which will give Hezbollah the pro-Syrian regime in Beirut an opportunity to crush the opposition.

And Mohammed:

I have pointed this out in a previous post, the Ba'ath regime throughout its criminal history has depended from its early days back in the 50s on criminal elements and local thugs in Baghdad and other cities. ...The Syrian regime is no exception for this and is also trying-through recruiting paid killers in Iraq-to spread terror and fear and put obstacles on the road of the change.

I think this is also going to happen in Lebanon too after the Syrian troops are withdrawn. The Syrian regime will recruit (if not doing so right now) criminals to carry out sabotage and assassinations after the Syrians leave the country in an attempt to say "we have warned you from the dangers of withdrawal and now you've got to face the consequences."

Damascus has today tried to explain the vacuous, Assad himself clarifying last Thursday's open-ended statement on military withdrawal with a half-promise to move out in a few months; maybe, still running the numbers, we'll get back to you. In July of 2003 the Middle East Intelligence Bulletin lambasted Syria's favorite Vaudeville skit, "Okay, We'll Withdraw the Troops," performed in 2001, 2002 and 2003 before United Nations Security Council Resolution 1559 knocked the spotlight back to Damascus from Baghdad, where it had been stuck for nearly two years. Bashar Assad is a weasel of a strongman, a thug who doesn't let pride interfere with what he wants; who follows the letter of eviction and thumbs his nose at its spirit. He gets nudged, he'll do a little; another nudge, a little more, and when the nudges stop, so does he, and goes back to what he was scheming before. It's guile over bravado, the style of his father Hafez al-Assad; which is why the Ba'athists in Damascus will have outlived their Baghdad counterparts by a few years. To be fair, no army supercedes the laws of physics, and the transportation and quartering of some 15,000 soldiers and "additional in-country operatives" will require logistical planning. But to claim that full withdrawal has never been considered or is a breathtaking feat is shabby stuff. From 2003:

How far Syria is willing to go in reducing its military presence is a hotly debated topic in Lebanon. For months, the local media has been flush with leaks from official Lebanese and Syrian sources claiming that Damascus intends to meet its obligations under the Taif Accord, or even withdraw completely from Lebanon. In early July, a Kuwaiti paper quoted "Arab sources" as saying that Syria had decided to complete the relocation of its forces to the Beqaa by the end of 2003. On July 23, Al-Nahar reported that Syria was planning further redeployments in the next few months that would relocate all of its forces to a narrow belt of territory in the eastern Beqaa. A number of Lebanese newspapers have even cited "informed" (but apparently unofficial) political sources as saying that Syria intends to withdraw completely from Lebanon by the fall of 2004.

Whether or not leaks were accurate, swift and full Syrian retreat is possible; Assad knows, world leaders know. If average citizens don't know, they can easily find out. Son is not as shrewd as Father.

The point, as before, is that this foot-dragging would be of most use to Damascus as a gauge of the free world's resolve. Perceived weakness among President Bush and his jury will beget mischief. A good wretch would try a rough-up here, a beating there, a kidnap — before testing the world's level of outrage to lethal actions. Lebanon can, unfortunately, be considered more like Iraq than the Ukraine. Read the long lists of dead heroes in the Near East over the last forty years: dictators' hitmen swine are good at what they do. Lebanese and their friends across the globe believe that until Damascus is essentially powerless it is always capable. They fear that Syria will take to this silently and slowly, gagging and knifing Lebanon before any protector nation feels justified to intercede.

But that justification may have already been accepted. Tony at Across the Bay picked out a suggestive phrase in public comments by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who followed her subordinate Paula Dobriansky in a hierarchically succession — ending with President Bush himself today — of accolades to Lebanon and rebukes to Syria. Apparently, through the course of a press conference Rice revealed that America's intentions begin at in-country aid and progress to a military presence, under United Nations auspices if necessary:

Events in Lebanon are moving in a very important direction. The Lebanese people are starting to express their aspirations for democracy ...This is something that we support very much. We will focus very much...on what we can help the Lebanese do. ...That means support for free and fair elections, that means election observers if necessary, monitoring if necessary

...As we see how the Lebanese will move forward I think we have to (look at) what can be done in terms of efforts to stabilize the situation should that become necessary.

If the Bush White House is anything, it is fastidiously deliberate. We don't yet have Bashar Assad's reply to Lebanon's "get lost," but we may stop assuming and start resting in firm conviction that as far as Washington is concerned, the Lebanese shall fear no specter.