More posturing, contrivance, observation and speculation follows the murder of Lebanon's former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. On Thursday Syrian Ba'athists said they would quit Lebanon. A weekend report suggests Damascus coughed up thirty of Saddam Hussein's old henchmen who were until recently working freelance from Syria to unsettle the foundations of Iraqi democracy: twenty-nine plebes and one big fish, Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan. Given Damascus' sixteen years of procrastination, far deeper investment in Iraqi sedition than the thirty, and notable success in escaping all punishment from Washington but largely gestural sanctions, this is chaff to throw off the seeking bolt whose head is a coincidental Franco-American diplomatic alliance and whose shaft is an implacable Lebanese nationalism. Lebanese are suspicious, too:

Eyewitnesses along Lebanon's strategic Beirut-to-Damascus highway say they have seen no sign of any Syrian troop movements yet and many are openly questioning Syria's intentions. ...Beirut's influential An Nahar newspaper is also complaining that Syria's intention to redeploy does not include its feared secret police. Lebanese opposition politicians, including Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, have accused Syria's secret police of being responsible for the car bomb which killed former Prime Minister Rafik al Hariri.

The Syrian claw doesn't always squeeze, but it's never very far away, from the word of border town residents:

At a time where the Syrian Army's withdrawal remains a heated debate between Syrian and Lebanese officials, Chtaura residents are being cautious about what they say. Local taxi driver Assam Qurbie said: "The place is crawling with mukhabarat and the Syrian Army, if we anger Syria, we are the first to get into trouble."

The same concern was echoed by several Chtaura residents, where the Syrian Army maintains a large presence. "I just hope they leave soon and we never have to see a Syrian soldiers coming into any of our stores," said Qurbie, one of the few residents willing to express his views.

The greatest danger entails Bashar Assad's regime offering the same fate to Lebanon's patriots as their martyr Hariri. If all parties accepted the departure of Syrian troops as make-believe, certainly they wouldn't raise an objection to the mukhabarat "retiring" Lebanon's democratic resistance and returning the population to silent captivity. Damascus has already called for a ban on protests with vague crackdown orders to its hired thugs. Such a turn, however, would depend on deference from Washington and Paris. And while Jacques Chirac's true stance might make for good money in the futures trade, President Bush spoke on Wednesday expecting shadow puppetry from Damascus:

Asked whether he had convinced European leaders to seek sanctions against Syria, Bush said Damascus must withdraw its troops and "secret services" from Lebanon and not try to influence upcoming parliamentary elections there.

"We will see how they respond before there's any further discussions about going back to the United Nations," the US president said during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, who backed Bush's statement.

Assuming the president will not stand for Syrian violation, the White House will watch for two Ba'athist responses — either of which, if antagonistic, would exact Washington's physical intervention. The first response will be to a likely no-confidence vote in the Beirut parliament tomorrow. Hariri's death has made a coalition out of Lebanon's politicos, who are undeterred in their bid to vote Syria out; and post-Saddamite Iraqis out of the country's people, who toppled a bust of the man responsible for their thralldom, Bashar Assad's father. Damascus may let the Lebanese have their day, betting 15,000 troops against a single humiliation, leading to the second response.

That will be to the increasing skepticism towards Syrian withdrawal. In the three days since declaring troop movements Damascus has peddled a few excuses for obfuscation and non-performance, including a security threat from Israel. One, of a sort, has emerged: just yesterday, Jerusalem blamed Syria's terrorist bazaar, with Iran's, for the latest bombing murder of Jews. Given that both Israel and Palestinians officially suspect Hezbollah, Syria's most favored client, whose training camps Islamic Jihad — the terrorist group claiming responsibility — has been attending since the 1990s, the possibility of another event manufactured by Damascus is strong. If so, the "threat" from Israel would be altogether justified, and the murderous distraction will quickly falter. Then we may hear more of Bashar Assad's intention, as reported by the Turkish press, to filibuster. Knowing President Bush, it will be met with cloture.