web stats analysis
Breakdown; Can't Stand Success; Barter
 
Michael Ubaldi, February 23, 2005.
 

  • Eighteen months ago I asked, half-playfully, if the Taliban had fallen into a quagmire by concussively failing to prevent Afghan reconstruction and self-determination. Two weeks ago I considered the Taliban as good as "heading towards extinction."

    Shortly after a December 2001 defeat at the hands of American-led forces, a group of Taliban flunkies read the situation well and formed a politically inclined splinter group called Khudamul Furqan Jamiat, announcing the intent to "help bring peace to Afghanistan," if perhaps only to acquire power through less violent means. Diplomatic exchanges have continued between KFJ and Kabul since. In 2001 KFJ's principals were characterized as "mid-level" Taliban. Today, they are considered "senior" in some news reports that present the results of negotiation:

    Four senior Taliban leaders have accepted a reconciliation offer from the Afghan government, a Western official with direct knowledge of the deal said Tuesday. Under the agreement, which the official said would likely be announced within days, the men recognized the legitimacy of President Hamid Karzai's government in exchange for assurances that they would not face arrest by Afghan or foreign security forces.


    No one involved believes these men to be representative of the motley criminals, killers and madmen still intent on terrorizing the defenseless in remote areas. But the four carry sway over mercenaries and terrorists' unwilling accomplices, and with Allied troop strength increasing to match native efficacy, it's hoped that Afghanistan's enemies can be stripped to the bone:

    The four, all ethnic Pashtuns from Paktika province, could prove useful in that regard, [an anonymous] official added. Despite the Taliban's failure to make good on threats to disrupt the October election, members have launched periodic attacks on foreign and Afghan forces across the country, including along Paktika's border with Pakistan. [Arsullah] Rahmani, in particular, seems determined to persuade his compatriots in the province to give up such tactics, according to the official. "If he had his way, he would be more or less running around Paktika on foot to tell everyone to get down off the mountains and join the post-war process," the official said. "He's waiting to be unleashed."


    For their part, the active Taliban are insisting that they'll stir up trouble as soon as spring. But then, they insisted Afghanistan would never live without their rule, nor recultivate, nor popularly elect a leader. It's a threat that's literally phoned in.


  • Afghanistan's bureaucratic adversaries tripped over their own feet when the United Nations, apoplectic over renewed poppy growth, bet on transnational intrusion and lost when Afghans mitigated the problem themselves. Opium production was a favorite of leftist party-crashers intent on discovering flaws in the infant free state and magnifying them beyond any reasonable scale. With poppy levels down and other crops like wheat and pistachios set to redefine the country's agricultural export, the United Nations has turned downright nasty, releasing a disparaging report on Afghanistan's economy, infrastructure and society. Never mind that high-minded "good neighbors" stood by while Soviet invasion, anarchy and totalitarian rule brought abject ruin to the country; never mind that pluralism is splitting old ways like a rail; never mind that Afghanistan's rebound has seen yearly gross domestic product expansion rates of over 25% since 2001 with good years to come. Afghan's success has nothing to do with paper-pushers in Secretariat, and that knocks noses out of joint. Kabul seems to have taken the insult with good humor, which is more than can be said for Turtle Bay.

  • Speaking of markets, Hamed Karzai is in India today, talking trade:

    Since the ousting of the Taliban by US-backed forces in late 2001, India has been helping the country develop infrastructure, civil aviation, transport, industry, health facilities and educational institutions. It is currently building the Salma Dam project near the western city of Herat, laying power lines from the northern city of Pul-e-Khumri to Kabul and constructing the Zeranj-Delaram road near the Iran-Afghanistan border. Afghanistan also wants to open a trade corridor with India through Pakistan since most goods now travel via Iran.


    A better definition of "good neighbor," don't you think?