While the Nervous Nellies at the Corner bite their nails, Dick Morris stands firm:

Here's a two-part test to determine who will win on Tuesday:

a) Ask yourself: What is the issue we are talking about these days? Are we focused on terrorism and Iraq, or on health care and jobs? The answer is obvious: terrorism and Iraq.

b) Now look at the polls. Not the page that shows who they're voting for. That changes every hour. Look at the page that asks, "Which candidate do you think would do the best job of handling the war in Iraq?"

The answer is always President Bush, usually by 10 points. And right below that, on "Which candidate do you think would do the best job of handling the War on Terror?" Bush leads again, usually by 20 points. If the issue is terrorism and Iraq, and Bush wins those issues by double digits, then the winner will be . . . voila, Bush!

As I noted in a recent letter, the only real indicator of Kerry competitiveness is national polling, where he consistently trails. Nothing else. No anecdotal evidence, no advantage in the most important issues of the day, no bellwethers like the Weekly Reader mock election that's been spot-on since 1956, no economic predictors, no surprise gains in his opponent's safe states. Nothing.

Hypothetically, the election could be close. But as I've maintained, I expect a Bush win. And in that event, I expect a poll bubble to burst over a flabbergasted polling community.

GASTING THAT FLABBER: Jim Geraghty has been an invaluable source of hints from the GOP. Reports indicate that Bush is well ahead in early and absentee voting; in a message yesterday, 15 points ahead nationwide, which corresponds to his apparent Colorado showing of 64%. If a report that one-fifth of all ballots are being cast now is true, the argument made here again and again about supporters' enthusiasm, turnout and election results stands to reason.