Bill Bennett spoke to NBC's Gloria Borger this morning about a recent NBC-Wall Street Journal presidential poll that shows the candidates statistically tied. Bennett asked the question for whose answer I've been searching for months: with a consistent minority of Senator Kerry's supporters intending to vote for him and not against President Bush (only 37% in the NBC poll), and a consistently overwhelming majority of Bush supporters voting for the president and not against his opponent (74% in the same), how will this affect turnout?

Borger looked at the situation from two points in time. Earlier in the campaign, she said, a lack of conviction for Kerry would have left many voters home but with the election having heated up and hatred of Bush apparently increasing by the day, she believed those voters indeed go for the polls, if only to vote against the president.

Conviction to oust Bush may be a powerful driving force but if a lack of interest in the challenger can affect turnout, what about his perceived electoral chances? Every asking poll this month has shown a clear majority of voters confident in — or resigned to — a victory for President Bush. Rasmussen Reports' results are practically fixed at around 50%-35%. In my own experience, a somewhat cantankerous independent who, a month ago, was switching between Kerry and Bush by the day shrugged on a Kerry day "yeah, you're right, Bush'll probably take it all" when I ever-so-politely suggested he'd be disappointed on November 3rd. For those repelled by Kerry but unhappy with the president, the weight of inevitability may cause no-shows, undervotes or increased thirty-party support. For those truly undecided, they may find confidence in the crowd and vote for the president after all.

And all this when Republicans seem as enthusiastic as they've ever been. Last week, National Review's Jim Geraghty took the gauging of turnout to an analytical level, comparing the polls for 2002 races important to the Republicans to Election Day results. The degree to which the following is true can be debated, but Republican turnout will be a force to be reckoned with on November 2nd.

GOTTA LOVE THE SPOT: Jim Geraghty has more on inevitability and perception of presidential strength this morning.