Centrifugal Force, Part 3
Michael Ubaldi, September 6, 2004.
Scott Rasmussen has announced Bush's effective bounce as worth five points, but goes on to show the holistic gains made by such an electoral swing. Minnesota, a state won by Al Gore in 2000 and one safely on John Kerry's ledger for most of this race, is now a tie. California, where Kerry has enjoyed leads as large as 18 points, is now an 8-point race — four points away from Rasmussen's "toss up" category. As I said yesterday, whatever real gains can be derived from the president's post-convention surge are separate from the obvious psychological impact and effect on strategic planning. Bush's advances on Kerry safe-states will undoubtedly draw the Democrat's resources.
GALLUP PRESENTS: And it's a two-point uptick for the president against a two-point drop for John Kerry, bringing the president's lead to seven. That's lower than my prediction, though I suppose when all polls are averaged — leading to a mean bounce like RealClearPolitics' 6.4 — my numbers make a little more sense.
MORE RASMUSSEN: New Jersey and Michigan have, from Bush's recent poll gains, moved into the "toss-up" column.