Two polls describe the upcoming televised Democratic National Convention as a private party, to be ignored or nodded at by the majority of Americans and watched closely only by the faithful. A Pew Research Center survey released Wednesday shows one-third less interest in this year's nomination of a challenger than was exhibited for the party coronation of Bill Clinton in 1992, 36% as opposed to 53%; Rasmussen Research reports even less at 33%. At the same time, Rasmussen found that hardly any curious viewers — 2%, to be exact — are likely to be undecided voters: seven-tenths of those declaring interest were determined Kerry supporters and about one quarter Bush supporters, the latter probably tuning in to scope out their opponents and get fired up.

That's pretty good. Four of every five respondents in a third survey, from Harvard's Kennedy School, would have been surprised, turning on their televisions this week, to find John Kerry and the gang in Beantown.

Most voters, then, must be reached by newspapers, the internet and evening reports. Chances for a broad firsthand appeal are low, certainly lower than Bill Clinton's. For that, the party does has an ace: a sympathetic press corps. Democrats will enjoy journalists' flattery and discretion. We won't see cheap shots like the 2000 photograph of then-Governor Bush losing his balance on a platform, pre-convention, that received untoward circulation. Speeches and messages will be spit-shine polished; minor gaffes will be left as inconsequential or unreported altogether. But while Democrats need not be as careful with words and actions in coming days as Republicans must be this September, they face considerable trouble simply with drawing attention, let alone support, to this year's attraction.

President Bush rides on the cusp of positive approval ratings, watches over a heathily growing but effectively maligned economy and oversees two major and numerous minor military campaigns that, while still popular, strain the electorate as every war has since 1945. Despite a rock-solid base, his polling against John Kerry far more closely resembles Kennedy-Nixon than Reagan-Mondale, a persistent deadlock that has convinced many of a similarly exhausting, if not inconclusive election night in November — or even incumbent defeat. But Kerry, stepping up as the first Democratic challenge to a Republican White House in twelve years, faces difficulties of his own. Conventions are about show, pizazz, glitz and energy: that can't be argued when the big week in Boston briefly had its single purpose plucked out of the agenda by the Democratic Party itself. It's about face time. Slogans uttered here will resonate until November — and maybe decades. As is universally accepted, the Massachusetts Senator is not a Bill Clinton, and has shown neither the ability nor the inclination to markedly inspire or invigorate. His vice president comes the closest but is still miles away, and second fiddle at that. Though Kerry's dour temperament fits better with the seriousness of the war on terror than it would have with the post-Cold War Happy Hour of 1992, Kerry will miss the benefits of an electorate that pussyfooted about with three candidates before streaming for Clinton in a tie-dyed riot. Choosing candidates is not "fun" this time around, as many will remember 1992, were they adults or children, but a decision touching millions of lives.

The war is a dilemma for Kerry. Even though the Democratic candidate has been gaining in recent weeks on the president's command of national security, anecdotes and official platforms over the past year betray the Democratic Party's boredom with geopolitics, even today's. A friend of mine attended a closed, movie-star-studded Howard Dean fundraiser in Los Angeles over a year ago. During the half hour in which Dean spoke, the war was mentioned exactly once and even then in generic terms. He was only playing favorites. The base doesn't want to hear about the war, so the candidates don't waste time on it. Joe Lieberman and Dick Gephardt can attest to the boos and hisses that come with moving as right as Bush.

Here's where the dance between the faithful and the rest get complicated. Leftists are happy with isolationism, appeasement and American restraint, yes, but they only comprise one-fifth of the voters. Fringer Ralph Nader is doing his best to snap at the Democrats' left heel, keeping the party honest about who's really voting for them and why. Weigh the importance of national security to the general electorate against the convention's anticipated audience, and there are two characters the party can put on stage. We will probably see both, performed with the same hypocritical "nuance" that so typifies the Democratic Party today. Perhaps they'll even come out one right after the other, leapfrogged for days: John Kerry the hawkish veteran (in spite of twenty years of dovish civilian work), and John Kerry the Fellow Traveler (in spite of his purported "hawkish veteran" credentials). John Kerry the protector, or John Kerry the diplomatic prevaricator?

Its results will be mixed. The dichotemy, the trademark John Kerry muddle, will keep a number of voters — who prefer the White House's known quantity — at a distance. The kind of patriotic choreography required for such a show might not annoy the base too much but if it does, Kerry's numbers of positive support — an abstract of his voters' interest in voting rather than simply answering pollsters — could stay at their currently disappointing levels. Great polling on November 1st won't be worth a damn if people don't show up the next day.

And then there's the Democratic Party and with whom it surrounds itself. Who's been making headlines from hateful gales against President Bush, America or the right in general? Celebrities. Who will grace the Boston convention from start to finish? Celebrities. Americans enjoy spirited debate. Mockery they despise. Fan walkouts, protests and earnest expressions of outrage over the months have been merciful warnings to Democrats: Hollywood cannot stray from the script. That a supportive television audience is expected only increases the temptation for one of those "inside jokes" to be told. If the red, white and blue mask slips long enough, or often enough, not even the New York Times will be able to bury it.

This is the Democratic Party's chance to give their candidate a powerful July crest to ride into November — it's their only chance, as the fall debates will only slightly contour the running. With little more than a base watching, and one that's difficult to please, chances of fulfilling Bush-Cheney strategist Matthew Dowd's prediction of a 15-point lead are slim. There is simply far too much that is cherished by the modern Democratic Party that offends the rest of America, and this year the Democrats are too angry to keep up normal appearances. I predict equal chances of a tiny, four-to-six point lead that dwindles within ten days, or a drop of five or more.

ADVANTAGE, uBLOG: From Drudge, "Internal Fight over How Much Bush-Bashing at Convention." Or in other words, the second-last sentence of my last paragraph. This mental picture comes to mind.

STANDARD TIME: Fred Barnes has more.