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Prospects
 
Michael Ubaldi, May 29, 2004.
 

My first reaction is one of support to hear that the Iraqi Governing Council has nominated Iraq's interim prime minister without the help (read: officious browbeating) of the United Nations. Some believe the man's exile status makes him tailor made for term limits; one report, via IP, tells of a flummoxed United Nations that was neither notified nor consulted for the choice. Even the State Department is treading carefully. From what we know of the United Nations' internal bureaucracy, some of its Security Council's member countries and the very official charged with staffing Iraq's transitional authority, any selection they don't like is probably a good one.

The IGC's man is Iyad Allawi, a Shiite: western-educated neurologist, exile, sworn opponent of Saddam Hussein's regime, colleague of the British and our own CIA and State Department. He worked prominently for the October 2003 International Donors Conference in Spain.

As long as the representatives of Iraq select a leader dedicated to a pluralist, free-market democracy, foreign preferences are irrelevant — which is why this could very well be a victory for the White House, intentional or not. Bush benefits from some constituents by assigning the United Nations to Iraq's transition, slapping the seal on a few events to at least keep internationalists quiet. France, Germany and Russia, meanwhile, have made quite a lot of noise for months demanding that Iraqi sovereignty trump all, most recently in the debate on authority over security and military forces: a noble enough conviction, if only our Euro-Asian rivals weren't instead looking to keep Iraq authoritarian and the United States in an untenable political position.

But they were on the record early for Iraqi supremacy, as was United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan. So what do they say now that Iraq, their candidate for sovereignty, has made a sovereign decision they didn't anticipate? With their bluff called and their envoy's job done for him, the United Nations offers brittle words of praise through spokesmen.

If Brahimi had nothing to do with Allawi's nomination, we may know why President Bush simply let him traipse in. Or perhaps we've seen just how clever our Iraqi friends can be.