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Deductive Reasoning
 
Michael Ubaldi, April 27, 2004.
 

Most of the wire reports from Fallujah are operating under the assumption that the so-called ceasefire was intended to produce something more than time for Allied military repositioning and an ill-fated, probably ill-conceived settlement offer — as if the amalgamation of terrorists, criminals, Ba'athists and thugs would sign a treaty, become Born Again and take up accounting, gardening and badminton. "Shaky ceasefire" here and "deal in doubt" there. A lot of ink and television time is being devoted to the testimony of "experts." What about experts with firsthand accounts of the situation:

After saying that during the cease-fire his men have been "shot at, sniped, and mortared" every day, [1st Sgt. Bill] Skiles said the only solution was to "terminate them (the rebels)." "Let us finish it," he said, adding that the peace talks and cease-fire are only giving the insurgents time to get stronger.

"The insurgents are absolutely not going to learn any other way," he said. "It's all they understand. We're ready for a fight. And when we're comin', we're comin hard."


We have our star witness, with what is very likely a majority view among his colleagues. Ralph Peters has must-read more. This is the bottom line: make-or-break. Peters voices something I've been thinking since the [ceasefire was not immediately followed by decisive action], that "The president needs to lead, not equivocate. If there is any emerging resemblance to Vietnam, it isn't on the battlefield, but in the White House, where no one seems to have the will to win." Is the White House listening?

MARINES KNOW BEST: If it hasn't become completely obvious, the Marine Corps' performance in the face of this month's insurgent offensive has infused me with the incredible respect due the Few and the Proud. It's not that I lacked respect; I just couldn't realize how capable and unflappable this fighting force is until they were visibly put to the test. Four years ago I worked with an inactive Marine. He only told a few stories about his service but each one was brimming with pride, respect and a cultural ecumenism about the world — "Iraqis, they're just like us," he happened to tell me — that one might not otherwise assign to the leathernecks. The depth and intelligence of a soldier is more important than we civilians can truly grasp.

Belmont Club is again offering measured optimism. The strategic outlook of Fallujah is uncertain, complicated by diplomacy with strongmen; tactically, the Marines have less to worry about than the enemy.

POINT TAKEN: When Mort Kondracke is convinced that the Fallujah action is moving comfortably according to plan, there's something to it. If political interaction in the form of negotiations or further ceasefires is only a gambit for the Marines to better envelop the enemy, you'll hear no complaints from me. Truthfully, the length of this past operational pause took me by surprise, as it did others. After today's denial of resources, however, the completion of an Iraqi-Allied military victory that began two weeks ago may be back on the agenda. For the sake of Iraq and the war on terror, one can only hope.