Here's another Washington Post article on democratic prospects in Egypt, this one illustrating a confused, somewhat bleak situation. There are facts to face. Under no circumstances is Hosni Mubarak's police state interested in peaceful debate and an electoral transfer of power, nor do Washington's obsolete yearly payments to Cairo - much of the aid Jimmy Carter's reward to Anwar Sadat for deciding the destruction of Israel wasn't wise - accomplish much beyond fortifying the current regime, as I noted in comments on an article before this one.
Projecting the political terrain of a democratic Egypt based on its status today, however, as the article seeks to do, is foolish. No one had any idea what sort of individuals and ideals would rise up [from obscurity] in either Iraq or Afghanistan; and the fact that majorities - particularly in Iraq - reject Islamic extremism and statist rule was quite debatable at one time. Until the culture of dictatorship is removed from Egypt, we should expect to see dissident movements made up of Islamists or otherwise anti-American (the abundant pro-Western revolutionaries in Iran seem to be a regional anomaly). When people don't need to mouth fundamentalist or Arabist slogans, political groups that diverge from the norm come out of the woodwork. Real choices in polity make a difference.
Ultimately, Mohammed Atta's homeland is Exhibit A for the source of terrorism: an oppressed populace struggling for rights, but politically complicated by extremism made to appear both viable and attractive in the desperation of want. It's of short term gain that Egypt, like Saudi Arabia and Jordan, are officially friendly and helpful to the United States; better to have uneasy diplomatic relations than open enmity. But those strategic alliances were based on geopolitical conditions that no longer exist, and their continuation is elementarily incompatible with our democratization work in Iraq and Afghanistan - it's precisely the toleration of dictatorship that the West needs to correct. If Washington has the will, liberalization becomes a question of timing in the war on terror.
An interesting note in the article is a stipulation from Washington that 20% of aid be invested towards "democratic" purposes, and that the inevitable end of Hosni Mubarak presenting the best internal opportunity for democratic action seems consistent in reports from Egypt. Authentic and lasting freedom, however, is going to require a little more effort.
A LITTLE BACKGROUND: An abstract of America's relationship with Egypt.
