Trouble in paradise: weather agencies recently modified Northeast Ohio's medium-term forecast. Not only will the snow on the ground face rain showers tomorrow, but a white Christmas under the current projection looks iffy at best.
But then, over the course of two or three days one can watch a ten-day prediction change drastically more than once. Forecasting is a tricky and - at least according to today's philosophy - inherently tentative practice, often subject to as much luck as reason. That's probably why ExtremeTech believes that putting a finger to the wind isn't just for meteorologists:
We used to live in Los Angeles, where being next to the Pacific Ocean made weather forecasters uncannily accurate. Their forecasts almost never varied from day to day, however, so their record had little to do with mad weather skills. Where we live now, though, actually has seasons: rain, snow, wind, and tornados. Weather forecasters earn their keep, even though they're usually wrong. It's seemingly the only profession in which you can be wrong all the time and still collect a regular paycheck.
I wouldn't consider it to be that much of a crapshoot. But as anyone who spent even a single afternoon reading about taking barometric and air moisture measurements with objects from the kitchen and the toolbox, kit-bashing a reasonably accurate PC weather station is only a step or two beyond:
Although long-term weather forecasts rely on massive, expensive supercomputers, the much shorter time frames and smaller region you'll analyze with simulation software in this project place far lesser demands on your PC, so much so that the requirements for the PC you'll use for your weather station really are minimal. [E]ven a processor slower than 300 MHz running Windows will do.
The article offers, among others, a link to an aging yet relevant site explaining introductory concepts of chaos and order in weather behavior. (Physics class never really took, so the double-pendulum had me as fascinated as a seven-year-old in a science museum.) Is there a method to Mother Nature's Madness? I've been able to distinguish a few patterns over the years. Otherwise, I make my judgments from a combination of the Old Farmer's Almanac and the Weather Channel.
So: where's that snowy Yule you promised, gentlemen?