Inexplicable - that's what I'd call Andrew Sullivan's 180-degree turn in his trust of the Bush administration's ability to juggle the torches and knives that is nation-building. Unsure as to whether he realizes he sounds exactly like the cynic-misanthrope leftists he's been impugning for months, I am compelled to debunk his latest truculent missive, "Losing the Peace." Sullivan links arms with a Washington Post story and guffaws at the thought of 145,000 American troops keeping the peace in a supposedly gigantic country.
Two problems with this assessment: one geographical, the other historical. Everyone is familiar with the phrase "A country the size of California." It is really only germane, however, to the topic of sites for weapons caches. Weapons caches can be plunked down in the middle of nowhere; they don't need telephone lines or irrigation, roadways or connections to markets. People do, hence the general limitation of Iraq's population centers to the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.
It's unlikely that Predator drones and other forms of surveillance far more powerful than GIs wandering about will cease to monitor Iraqi borders and frontiers in the near future; so what we have is, in fact, an area much smaller than the whole of Iraq where Allied troops will need to supervise and, if need be, contain foreign or domestic troublemakers.
The second problem with this gloomy survey is that, once again, it ignores history. Japan, though a "tiny" island, is more than four-fifths the size of Iraq and described by the CIA as "Slightly smaller than California." And that's besides the point - it's people one needs to worry about when maintaining country-wide civil order, not landscapes. The Post article echoes this by concentrating on looting and disorderliness on the streets that has continued for a month, caused by people in urban environments that are relatively tiny, population-dense sections of the country.
In 1945, Japan's population was around 60 million - more than two times that of Iraq today, estimated at 25 million. At war's end, Douglas MacArthur had about 700,000 troops under his command but before the Occupation was far along, that number shrunk to 200,000.
Straight numbers, that's roughly 300 Japanese for every GI. In Iraq, the number is close to 172 for every Allied soldier. For two geographically comparable countries, the most recent democratization not only benefits from fifty years of communications, transportation and surveillance technology but actually boasts twice the complement as its successful predecessor.
The first few years of Iraq's struggle to liberty will be difficult, let alone the first few months. Doubt is understandable, though reasonable faith should be the order of the day - the Bush administration has proved its mettle on the countless tiny challenges this campaign has brought. Earlier attempts at combining momentary confusion and apparent setback - like the United Nations balk, the so-called military failure (wasn't "Not enough boots on the ground" the mantra?) and the now-dispelled museum pillage - into irreparable failure have completely disintegrated as groundless charges do. Thus looking at our American leadership, we have a pattern in front of us - and it isn't one acquainted with disaster. That is reserved for the peanut gallery, sadly still gaining members.
Why, Sullivan, why?
